Osun 2026: KDI Flags Osogbo, Ede, Ilesa, Ife LGAs in Security Risk Assessment

… Calls for Preventive Action

By Joseph Sunday

A non-partisan democracy and development organization, KIMPACT Development Initiative, KDI, has identified Osogbo, Ede, Ilesa, and Ile-Ife local government areas as requiring enhanced preventive measures ahead of the Osun State governorship election.

KDI disclosed this on Monday in its 2026 Osun Election Integrity and Security Assessment unveiled at a stakeholder meeting with members of the international observer community, diplomatic corps, civil society and the media.

The report comes five days to the August 15 governorship election.

According to KDI, credible elections are not secured on Election Day alone, but in the weeks and months leading up to the polls through intelligence, impartial institutions, responsible political conduct and prepared citizens.

The organisation stressed that the assessment is not a prediction of violence or an indictment of any community, party or institution, but a decision-support and early-warning tool designed to turn evidence into coordinated action before risks escalate into incidents.

KDI referenced the Human Rights Foundation’s 2026 Tyranny Tracker, which recently classified Nigeria as a fully authoritarian regime, noting that while the methodology may be debated, the warning is timely given the Osun poll and the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for January 16, 2027.

The group linked the assessment to its recently launched State of Democratic Performance in Nigeria 2025 report, which reviewed institutional accountability, citizen participation, electoral integrity, civic space and public trust across the 36 states.

Founded in 2014, KDI said it promotes citizen-led democratic development through elections, civic participation, policy advocacy and technology. It noted that its network of trained non-partisan observers supported peaceful off-cycle elections in Edo and Ondo states, while its Ballot Integrity Project has helped strengthen scrutiny of polling-unit results.

It described Osun as significant, being the last major off-cycle governorship election before the 2027 general elections and the first major competitive test of recent changes to Nigeria’s electoral framework. The poll, it said, will test logistics, security coordination, technology deployment, results management and public confidence.

KDI said the assessment adopted a mixed-method, multi-source framework, including:

• A citizen survey of 3,275 respondents across all 30 Local Government Areas of Osun between January and March 2026; 15 Key Informant Interviews with political actors, security agencies, traditional institutions, women and youth leaders, civil society and the media; Continuous incident monitoring from October 2025 to August 2026; Print, broadcast, online and social media monitoring, field observation and secondary research; and Multi-stakeholder validation.
  The data, it said, was analysed through its Electoral Pressure Model, which examines how political, operational, criminal, social, coercive, behavioural and information pressures overlap in different localities — moving beyond conventional hotspot mapping.

The presentation was led by KDI’s Head of Research and Strategy, Femi Adebayo, and Programme Manager, Mercy Ambiem, with discussants including Prof. Ernest Ereke, retired Assistant Inspector-General of Police, AIG Abutu Yaro, and Agianpe Onyema.

KDI urged stakeholders to use the full report, which contains LGA-level analysis, scenarios and recommendations, to sharpen deployment and engagement plans.

“Early warning only has value when it produces early action,” the organisation said, adding that the credibility of the Osun election will depend not only on the absence of violence, but on whether citizens can participate freely, institutions act impartially, information remains truthful and lawful outcomes command public confidence.