Reports
Violence Shifts to New Areas in Osun Ahead of Poll, KIMPACT Warns
By Joseph Sunday
The Head of Research and Strategy at KIMPACT Development Initiative, Oluwafemi John Adebayo, has raised concerns over shifting patterns of violence ahead of Saturday’s election in Osun State.
Speaking during a stakeholder briefing on data tracked since October 2025, Adebayo said areas with no previous record of electoral violence have now become flashpoints.
“Before now, Ilesa East and Ilesa West had not recorded any electoral violence. But in the last two weeks, there have been 10 incidents within the Ilesa corridor,” he said.
He also noted a marginal increase in violent incidents in Ede South.
Adebayo expressed worry over inflammatory rhetoric from the political class, saying it is the first time in his experience as an election observer that words like “kill” and “maim” are being openly used.
According to him, the biggest impact of the violence and rhetoric will be voter suppression and low turnout.
His major concern, however, is the post-election period. While he acknowledged that there could be relative peace on Election Day due to increased deployment of security agencies and observers, he warned that the period after the poll remains volatile.
“It’s beyond just competitiveness. It’s now looking like there is an unresolved grievance, a kind of resentment that has been entrenched within the political corridor,” he said.
Adebayo stressed that election is a civic exercise and no life is worth losing.
He highlighted the strategic importance of Osun East in the election. Although all major candidates are from Osun West — the Ede, Irepodun and Ejigbo axis — Osun East holds significant voting strength and has the highest average polling unit-to-voter proximity, but also the highest number of hard-to-reach areas. He said this will put operational and security pressure on INEC.
He disclosed that KIMPACT has engaged civil society organisations, the media, INEC, the Nigeria Police and other security agencies, as well as the EFCC and ICPC on vote-buying.
On whether the election will meet international best practices, Adebayo said pre-election indicators — including election security, inclusiveness, issue-based campaigning and transparency — raise serious concerns.
He also expressed concern over a court judgment delivered about 48 hours to the election, which requires the reprinting of ballot materials. He said the judgment puts additional operational pressure on INEC and raises concerns about the judicialisation of elections.
He, however, said there is no indication that INEC plans to postpone the election, citing a press release issued by the Commission on Thursday affirming its readiness to proceed.
He referenced the Anambra election, where pre-election tension did not translate into Election Day violence, expressing hope for a similar outcome in Osun.
